Business investment has been slumping this year, and a leading suspect is the election. By many key measures, the economy has looked fine in recent months. After gradually sliding for most of 2015, industrial production has bounced up. Consumer spending has done well. The economy added 151,000 jobs last month. Initial jobless claims are near a four-decade low.
Yet most economists, when asked to assess the odds of a recession in the next year, have continued to place the odds at about one in five. Not a prediction of imminent doom, but double the odds of a year ago.
Gender, marital status and mortgages don’t get a lot of research attention in real estate, but two new reports examine the exceptional role of single women in the home purchase marketplace and the challenges they face in getting a loan. A couple of highlights:
- Single women are statistically better at paying their mortgages than men – they default less – yet they are charged more for their loans and are denied credit more often. Though they have lower incomes on average than single men, they tend to make larger down payments, according to researchers at the Housing Finance Policy Center of the Urban Institute.
- Single women are now the second largest group of buyers in the marketplace, accounting for anywhere from 15 percent to more than 20 percent of all home purchases in recent years. Single men, by contrast, have accounted for about 9 percent of purchases since 2012. Married buyers once represented more than four-fifths of the market, but that has declined over the past several decades. In 1985 married couples made 81 percent of all purchases; last year it was 67 percent. You might assume that unmarried couples have taken up the slack, but that’s not the case. Last year, according to a new research note titled “All the Single Ladies” by Jessica Lautz, managing director of survey research at the National Association of Realtors, unmarried partners accounted for just 7 percent of total sales.